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Guidelines for Informing Policy via Data

CHAPTER 4 - DEVELOPING INDICATORS AND OTHER STATISTICS FROM PRE-EXISTING DATA (page 2)


4.2 EXAMPLES OF PRE-EXISTING DATA

4.2.1 A Trail of Paper

In May 1999, the Science and Human Rights Program of the American Association for the Advancement of Science was researching events in the former Yugoslavia. The goals of their research questions were to determine how many ethnic Albanians had been and were being forced to leave Kosovo, and who was responsible for their displacement. To begin to seek out data that could answer those questions, AAAS sent Fritz Scheuren and Patrick Ball to study refugees crossing the Albania-Kosovo border.

During that visit, Fritz noticed that the Albanian border guards were recording data about the parties crossing into Albania. Fritz and Patrick soon discovered that the guards were registering every refugee they could in detailed border records. They were successful in doing so except during periods of shooting or shelling on the Kosovo side of the border, when refugees would run through the border as quickly as possible.

Although the AAAS team did not have access to those records immediately, they were able to gain access to them later that year, with permission of the Albanian government. What they found was a large pile of paper (see Figure 4.2.1). Using a scanner at the border, a team captured 690 pages of records. The resulting electronic copies of the pages were of high quality, but several time-periods were missing, including two days in mid-May.

Fortunately, the UN High Commission for Refugees (UNHCR) had conducted an independent count of people on the road passing the border, and had published daily tallies during the conflict. That secondary source of information, combined with the border records, was used to create a single dataset of extraordinarily high quality, containing approximately 404,000 records. From that dataset, a time series of refugee movement could be calculated.



Figure 4.2.1: Records maintained by the Albanian border guards at Morina, March-June 1999. Source: www.amstat.org (accessed March 31 2007 [1])
Using the data they found at the Kosovo-Albanian border, combined with data found in press releases of the United National High Commission for Refugees, Patrick Ball and his team developed indicators of refugee movement. Those indicators were counts of Ethnic Albanians that had left their homes, by two-day periods, between March and May of 1999. The resulting time series is shown in Figure 4.2.2.



Figure 4.2.2: Refugee movement from Kosovo into Albania, March-June 1999. Source: Killings and Refugee Flow in Kosovo March - June 1999: A Report to the International Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia (accessed March 31 2007 [2])

4.2.2 Non-governmental and Intergovernmental Sources of Data

For researchers working in countries where past or current human rights abuses and other governance issues are of concern to policy-makers, non-governmental organisations, academia, governmental bodies, or private firms might have data that the researcher can use. For example, as part the Metagora pilot project in Palestine, the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics partnered with local academia and non-govermental organisations to develop a database that included data on the right to education.

Some additional examples of freely accessible non-governmental and government sources of data include:

The list here is not comprehensive but serves as an example of the depth and breadth of data and indicators available, from individual-level records to national aggregates, in terms of depth, and from general-governance indicators to coral-reef policies, in terms of breadth.

In many cases, data collected by non-governmental organisations will be qualitative; for the researcher to use those data to develop quantitative indicators and statistics, he/she will need to code the data prior to data entry. Examples of best practices for coding, including the development of a controlled vocabulary, are given in the recommended reading listed below.


1. Ball, P. and Asher, J., "Statistics and Slobodan: Using Data Analysis and Statistics in the War Crimes Trial of Former President Milosevic," Chance, 15, 2002, p 17-24.

2. Ball, P., Betts, W., Scheuren, F., Dudukovich, J., and Asher, J., Killings and Refugee Flow in Kosovo March - June 1999: A Report to the International Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia, American Association for the Advancement of Science, Washington, DC, 2002, p 5.

 
   
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